Drones are no stranger to making headlines. They effectively shut down Gatwick airport in 2018, and grounded all flights for 30 hours – yet no one was charged. Almost as fast as they appeared, they vanished without a trace.

Newly developed drones also made the news for evading Saudi Arabia’s air defences and destroying large amounts of oil supplies. These incidents aren’t isolated or altogether uncommon, and their frequency will only increase as drone technology becomes more accessible to a broader range of users.

It’s the unpredictable nature of drones, coupled with the lack of proper drone detection radar, that makes them such a sizeable threat to national security if not effectively managed. With technology advancing at an unprecedented rate, the next 10 years are shaping up to be a defining moment in the history of drone technology, so it’s important to be prepared.

Here are our predictions for how the drone threat will evolve over the next decade.

Drone Swarms

The future promises a new, evolving threat in drone technology – swarming. As drones get cheaper to manufacture, harder to detect, and increasingly more disposable, the likelihood of drones appearing in large, remote-controlled groups is growing. We’ve already seen what swarms of drones can do. A swarm performed an impressive light-show for the opening ceremony of the 2018 Winter Olympics, with over 1,000 drones working in harmony with one another. Aside from being a great source of entertainment, swarming could revolutionise the way in which the armed forces operates.

In January 2018 drone swarms were used to attack a Russian Airbase in Syria. There was no notable damage, but the attack marks the first time swarms were used in a military strike. Around 13 drones carrying explosives were pre-programmed with target coordinates and flew autonomously from their initial launch site over 50km away. Drone swarms have the potential to be extremely deadly.

Drone swarming refers to drones that are deployed in squads but are able to think independently and function as part of a wider pack. Military applications for the technology is in the early stages, but armed forces across the globe are heavily investing in its continued development. These drones will be able to operate and accomplish tasks with minimal human interaction, which makes them all the more deadly.

These small drones could quickly gather intel, survey an area, and execute a precision attack with ease, presenting a sizeable threat to national security in the coming decade. A large-scale terror attack pulled off by an automated squadron of drones may seem unlikely at this stage, but the reality may come a lot sooner than you'd think. 

Drone detection systems will become essential for the continued protection against the growing threat and when combined with other counter-drone technology, will be the first line of defence if an attack does take place.

Continued Commercialisation of Drones

Aside from military applications, drone technology has continued to expand in the hobby and commercial sectors. Once an expensive toy for the RC enthusiast, the market for recreational drones has grown substantially. When hobby drones first appeared on the market, they were large, expensive, and difficult to operate. Now they're cheaper, agile, and easier to use than their predecessors.

Drone use is also making its way into the commercial market with many companies experimenting with drones for their day-to-day operations. Companies like Amazon, the BBC, and EasyJet all use drones to varying degrees and are trialling new ways of using drones to make certain tasks easier. 

Their continued commercial development has given a huge boost to the agricultural industry. Due to their versatile nature, drones are being used for crop spraying, mass planting, irrigation, and soil and field analysis. As the technology advances, we expect to see an emphasis on fleets of drones that can carry out larger tasks collectively, as well as further work towards complete automation.

Plus, the recent pandemic that's sweeping across the world has led to an increase in drones being used to capture images of desolate landmarks and empty city centres. The COVID-19 drone effect is real, and has led to the increase in drone use by both consumers and officials. 

However, in both hobby and commercial drone usage, there are substantial risk factors to consider, that will be all the more prevalent in the years ahead.

Privacy

Non-military drones are especially susceptible to hacking from external sources, and this can lead to hijacking or loss of control, which causes big problems.

Drones also present many privacy challenges because of their most common and attractive features – the ability to record voice and video. Everything from eavesdropping and spying to data collection is possible with drones.

Physical Safety

As more and more people use drones, the risk of accidental harm and damages is set to increase. A lapse in concentration, a malfunction, or an out-of-control drone can cause major harm if the response is poorly managed.

Imagine a drone flying too high and hitting a plane, or an out-of-control drone flying into an unsuspecting passer-by. If left unchecked, drones have the capacity to cause real damage.  

Without the right drone detection radar, necessary laws in place, and effective counter-drone technology, these issues will continue to increase as their popularity grows. 

A Vulnerable Future

In the coming decade, drones will be everywhere. For better or for worse, they will be a part of everyday life. The impact will be substantial, and it's more important than ever to be prepared. 

Mishandled drone incidents can disrupt essential services, so their detection and prevention must remain a priority.